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96 Elliott Wave and Zigzag (5-3-5)

96 Elliott Wave and Zigzag (5-3-5)
96 Elliott Wave and Zigzag (5-3-5)
A single zigzag in a bull market is a simple three-wave declining pattern labeled A-B-C. The subwave sequence is 5-3-5, and the top of wave B is noticeably lower than the start of wave A, as illustrated in Figures 1-22 and 1-23.
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In a bear market, a zigzag correction takes place in the opposite direction, as shown in Figures 1-24 and 1-25. For this reason, a zigzag in a bear market is often referred to as an inverted zigzag.
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Occasionally zigzags will occur twice, or at most, three times in succession, particularly when the first zigzag falls short of a normal target. In these cases, each zigzag is separated by an intervening "three," producing what is called a double zigzag (see Figure 1-26) or triple zigzag. These formations are analogous to the extension of an impulse wave but are less common. The correction in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from July to October 1975 (see Figure 1-27) can be labeled as a double zigzag, as can the correction in the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index from January 1977 to March 1978 (see Figure 1-28). Within impulses, second waves frequently sport zigzags, while fourth waves rarely do.
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R.N. Elliott’s original labeling of double and triple zigzags and double and triple threes (see later section) was a quick shorthand. He denoted the intervening movements as wave X, so that double corrections were labeled A-B-C-X-A-B-C. Unfortunately, this notation improperly indicated the degree of the actionary subwaves of each simple pattern. They were labeled as being only one degree less than the entire correction when in fact, they are two degrees smaller. We have eliminated this problem by introducing a useful notational device: labeling the successive actionary components of double and triple corrections as waves W, Y and Z, so that the entire pattern is counted "W-X-Y (-X-Z)." The letter W now denotes the first corrective pattern in a double or triple correction, Y the second, and Z the third of a triple. Each subwave thereof (A, B or C, as well as D or E of a triangle — see later section) is now properly seen as two degrees smaller than the entire correction. Each wave X is a reactionary wave and thus always a corrective wave, typically another zigzag.
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https://i.redd.it/t9a8umh82lg41.gif
Figure 1-24

Figure 1-25
Flat (3-3-5)
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A flat correction differs from a zigzag in that the subwave sequence is 3-3-5, as shown in Figures 1-29 and 1-30. Since the first actionary wave, wave A, lacks sufficient downward force to unfold into a full five waves as it does in a zigzag, the B wave reaction, not surprisingly, seems to inherit this lack of countertrend pressure and terminates near the start of wave A. Wave C, in turn, generally terminates just slightly beyond the end of wave A rather than significantly beyond as in zigzags.
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https://i.redd.it/7dap3j592lg41.gif
Figure 1-29

Figure 1-30
In a bear market, the pattern is the same but inverted, as shown in Figures 1-31 and 1-32.
A flat correction usually retraces less of the preceding impulse wave than does a zigzag. It tends to occur when the larger trend is strong, so it virtually always precedes or follows an extension. The more powerful the underlying trend, the briefer the flat tends to be. Within an impulse, the fourth wave frequently sports a flat, while the second wave rarely does.
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What might be called a "double flat" does occur. However, Elliott categorized such a formation as a "double three," a term we discuss later in this chapter.
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The word "flat" is used as a catch-all name for any A-B-C correction that subdivides 3-3-5. In Elliott literature, however, three types of 3-3-5 corrections have been named by differences in their overall shape. In a regular flat correction, wave B terminates about at the level of the beginning of wave A, and wave C terminates a slight bit past the end of wave A, as we have shown in Figures 1-29 through 1-32. Far more common, however, is the variety we call an expanded flat, which contains a price extreme beyond that of the preceding impulse wave. Elliott called this variation an "irregular" flat, although the word is inappropriate as they are actually far more common than "regular" flats.
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In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A, as shown for bull markets in Figures 1-33 and 1-34 and bear markets in Figures 1-35 and 1-36. The formation in the DJIA from August to November 1973 was an expanded flat correction in a bear market, or an "inverted expanded flat" (see Figure 1-37).
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In a rare variation on the 3-3-5 pattern, which we call a running flat, wave B terminates well beyond the beginning of wave A as in an expanded flat, but wave C fails to travel its full distance, falling short of the level at which wave A ended, as in Figures 1-38 through 1-41. Apparently in this case, the forces in the direction of the larger trend are so powerful that the pattern is skewed in that direction. The result is akin to the truncation of an impulse.
It is always important, but particularly when concluding that a running flat has taken place, that the internal subdivisions adhere to Elliott’s rules. If the supposed B wave, for instance, breaks down into five waves rather than three, it is more likely the first wave up of the impulse of next higher degree. The power of adjacent impulse waves is important in recognizing running corrections, which tend to occur only in strong and fast markets.
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We must issue a warning, however. There are hardly any examples of this type of correction in the price record. Never label a correction prematurely this way, or you’ll find yourself wrong nine times out of ten. A running triangle, in contrast, is much more common (see next section).
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Hurst cycle buy

post with charts http://hurstcycles.com/bitcoin-again/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HurstCycles+%28Hurst+Cycles%29#sthash.an2xXf3s.dpbs
Bitcoin again … This entry was posted in Analysis Forex Analysis on January 19, 2018 by David Hickson. In my previous post I wrote about Bitcoin, and presented an argument for the fact that Hurst cycles are active in the price fluctuations of this new currency. I concluded that post by stating that I believed a peak of 42-month magnitude was due to occur soon. I published the post on 16 December 2017, and on 17 December – the very next day (Bitcoin trades on a Saturday and Sunday) the coin reached a high price of $19,870 and promptly turned downwards. Just over a month later the coin dropped below $10,000, having lost nearly 50% of its value.
When I wrote the post in December, I was inspired to do so by the constant media coverage of Bitcoin – to the extent that pretty much the first thing anybody asked on hearing that I had an interest in financial markets was “What do you think of Bitcoin?” I am a dyed in the wool contrarian, and my first reaction when an investment instrument is making headlines, and everybody is wanting to “get on board for the ride”, is to expect a peak to form and the price to fall. The Hurst cycles analysis indicated that indeed a peak was due, supporting the contrarian view. As an aside here: I was asked in December to provide advice to someone who was very keen to buy Bitcoin. I realized the extent of the bullish fever when my advice not to buy because I believed the value was about to fall was greeted with disappointment, and a response of “Are you sure? Isn’t it possible that you got it wrong?” Bitcoin was clearly inspiring some of the feverish “madness” that inspired bubbles such as the Tulip craze in the 1600’s.
A month later I find myself inspired again to write a post about Bitcoin … again because of the media coverage and hype around this investment. However now media coverage is mostly on the other side, as demonstrated by this headline:
Not so bullish ...
There are many people crying “I told you so” because of the dramatic drop in value of Bitcoin, and claiming that Bitcoin’s future as a currency is over. However I am not one of them… As a contrarian, when the media starts ringing the death bells, I take an interest again. And of course my interest leads me to turn to the cycles to ask what is happening.
Is Bitcoin going to turn into a 21st-century example of the Tulip craze? I cannot provide a definitive answer to that question, however I believe we are at a critical juncture. If Bitcoin is able to settle into the natural rhythm of a currency, and start exhibiting clean “normal” Hurst cycles, then I believe the answer to that question is no, and Bitcoin will earn itself a place as a regular (if particularly volatile) currency. If Bitcoin fails to settle into a regular Hurst cycles pattern, then indeed we might look back on it as an example of how the madness of crowds continues into the 21st century.
I am inclined to give Bitcoin the benefit of the doubt, because it has recently been exhibiting good clean cycle structure as shown in this chart below. As discussed in my previous post, I believe that it is exhibiting the characteristics of an instrument that has synchronized peaks, which makes the peaks much more easy to identify than the troughs. In the chart below note how the circles and whiskers to the right hand side of the chart (in the area of the future, where there is no price data), are much clearer at the top of the chart (where the peaks are projected), then they are at the foot of the chart (where the troughs are projected).
A peak has formed
Nevertheless there is a discernible rhythm in the troughs, even if the variation in wavelength is a bit wider than it is for the peaks. The reason why I say that Bitcoin is now at a critical juncture, is that we are expecting a 20-week trough to form. If a good clear trough does form at this point then we would expect the value of the coin to bounce up from that 20-week low, and its response to the Hurst cycle influence would encourage me to believe that Bitcoin is finding its feet as a new currency, moved by the same cycles that move all other currencies. (As a matter of interest the question marks at the foot of the chart beneath Wednesday’s trading bar indicate that it is possible that 20 week trough formed on Wednesday).
Another very encouraging feature of the recent price action is that it has fulfilled a perfect “zigzag” move for the 20-week cycle from the peak on 17th December to the potential trough on Wednesday 17 January. This chart shows how Sentient Trader’s zigzag feature plots that zigzag downward move, and because of the perfection of that move, is already assuming that the move is complete and that the next move to expect is an upwards bounce out of the 20 week cycle trough.
20-week zig-zag
Optimists amongst you will notice that the projection for the 20-week zigzag move up takes us off the chart to new high prices. I should caution you to take that projection with a pinch of salt, because it is based on recent moves out of the 20-week cycle trough, which have of course all been extraordinarily bullish. The zigzag tool considers each cycle in isolation, and does not consider the effect of that large and ominous peak in the middle of December. If that is indeed a peak of the 42-month cycle, then the bounce out of the 20-week cycle at this stage will not be nearly as impressive. To temper our enthusiasm for this bounce it is worth pointing out that this bounce is going to provide the correction for the 40-week cycle zigzag downwards from the peak in December to a trough expected in late March or early April, as shown in this chart:
40-week zig-zag
The dashed line there shows the downward movement of the 40 week cycle, and the dotted upwards pointing line is the bounce that the 20 week cycle trough should give us on the way down to the 40 week cycle low.
Considering the combination of all these different cycles is what makes understanding a Hurst cycles analysis such a fascinating and complex process. Another tool which gives us a way of visualizing the implications of an analysis is the Composite Model Line, a relatively new feature in Sentient Trader which simply takes the cycle information derived from the analysis on the chart and “puts it back together” if you like, thereby composing a purely cyclic price action, in other words a hypothetical price action created by the combination of the cycles that have been identified in the market. This line is then projected forwards, on the basis that the cycles will keep beating with the same wavelength and amplitude (in fact the line assumes that the wavelength and amplitude of each cycle will return to average values if they are currently extended). This line should not be used as an absolute forecasting tool because we know that cycles are dynamic, and are constantly varying in their wavelength and amplitude, but it is nevertheless a useful tool to give us an idea of what to expect on the basis of the analysis on the chart. Here is the Composite Model Line for this analysis:
Composite Model Line
You can see that the CML is indicating that the market is expected to turn up now, as it forms the 20-week cycle trough. It is expected to move up into early February where an 80-day cycle peak is expected to form. It will then move down again, into the middle of February before turning back up again to form the 20-week cycle peak expected sometime in April. What has happened to that move down that we saw in the zigzag for the 40 week cycle? This is where the CML is so useful. The fact that we can hardly see any evidence of price coming down into that 40-week cycle trough indicates that the combination of the many cycles that influence the price action is likely to reduce the impact of that 40-week cycle move downwards. In simple terms we could explain this as the bullish impetus of the move up into the 20-week cycle peak cancelling out the bearish impetus of the move down into the 40-week cycle trough.
But looking ahead a few months and debating which cycle will prove more dominant at that point is an uncertain business at best. The important point that I wish to make here is that a 20-week cycle trough is expected to form. If the value of Bitcoin increases at this point and shows that it is responding to that 20-week cycle, then our confidence in the fact that Bitcoin is settling into the natural rhythm of the cycles will increase. What happens after that remains shrouded in some uncertainty, but as time passes and our confidence in the cycles moving Bitcoin either increases or decreases, we will be in a better position to resolve that uncertainty.
About David Hickson I have been trading for over 20 years, but only had any success after discovering Hurst's cyclic principles. Unable to find any software to speed up the analysis process I created Sentient Trader software, which now pretty much does all the analysis for me. I am a film maker and a TV director, but nowadays I mostly provide consultation services to professional traders and fund managers, helping them to integrate Hurst analysis into their trading. I'm South African and live with my family in Italy.
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